b log

Jun 22 2020

NHL 2020 playoffs odds and predictions - Preliminary Round

As promised in our previous post, we will also publish predictions for the so called preliminary round, which determines the teams and seeding for the 16 team playoffs. In fact, as the postseason progresses, we'll post series winner predictions and odds for all playoff rounds, but let's start with the preliminary matches next in line.

Predicting preliminary round series winners

The winners of the preliminary round series will advance to the first round of the 2020 playoffs - the losers are out. Our predictions are derived from '19 - '20 regular season performance. For further information, read how we predict the postseason here.

Probability to win the series
Pittsburgh Penguins51.5 %1.94
Montreal Canadiens48.5 %2.06
New York Rangers50.9 %1.96
Carolina Hurricanes49.1 %2.04
Florida Panthers50.65 %1.97
New York Islanders49.35 %2.03
Toronto Maple Leafs51.91 %1.93
Columbus Blue Jackets48.09 %2.08
Edmonton Oilers50.94 %1.96
Chicago Blackhawks49.06 %2.04
Nashville Predators51.45 %1.94
Arizona Coyotes48.55 %2.06
Vancouver Canucks50.37 %1.99
Minnesota Wild49.63 %2.01
Winnipeg Jets51.2 %1.95
Calgary Flames48.8 %2.05

Predicting Round-robin tournament winners

The Round-robin tournaments are played between the best four teams in both conferences, to determine seeding for the first playoff round. By definition, all teams will meet each other in turns in the Round-robin tournaments. The games are played with regular season overtime rules, and ties in the tournament standings are broken by regular season point percentage.

Once again, the predictions are calculated based on regular season performance only. Regular season games against teams within the tournament are prioritized more, as much as the sample size allows, but all other regular season games are analyzed too.

Round-robin East: winner prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning26.52 %3.77
Boston Bruins24.94 %4.01
Philadelphia Flyers24.85 %4.02
Washington Capitals23.7 %4.22


Round-robin West: winner prediction
Colorado Avalanche25.76 %3.88
Vegas Golden Knights25.34 %3.95
St. Louis Blues24.95 %4.01
Dallas Stars23.95 %4.18


Happy betting!