b log

May 2 2022

NHL 2022 playoffs odds and predictions - 1st Round

Just like every previous season, we'll post series winner predictions and odds for every playoff round. Let's kick off the playoffs!

Predicting first round series winners

All of our playoff predictions below are derived from regular season performance (read our post from a couple of seasons back to understand why). Here we go:

Probability to win the 1st round series
Florida Panthers52.4 %1.91
Washington Capitals47.6 %2.1
Carolina Hurricanes52.49 %1.91
Boston Bruins47.51 %2.1
Toronto Maple Leafs51.14 %1.96
Tampa Bay Lightning48.86 %2.05
New York Rangers49.87 %2.01
Pittsburgh Penguins50.13 %1.99
Colorado Avalanche53.63 %1.86
Nashville Predators46.37 %2.16
Minnesota Wild52.73 %1.9
St. Louis Blues47.27 %2.12
Calgary Flames53.44 %1.87
Dallas Stars46.56 %2.15
Los Angeles Kings49.28 %2.03
Edmonton Oilers50.72 %1.97

The Eastern Conference is tougher than ever. All eight teams entered into the playoffs by a clear margin: New York Islanders were 16 points behind the Capitals "battling" for the final postseason berth. Moreover, all Eastern teams had either an excellent regular season or are seasoned playoff veterans with a recent track record for success, so expect the round 1 to be phenomenal.

The margins weren't that large in the Western Conference, where Vegas missed the last wild card spot by three points. The overall bracket seems similar to the East, though: teams that have recently gone deep in the playoffs (St. Louis, Dallas, L.A., Nashville) are challenging the new generation: Colorado, Calgary, Edmonton and Minnesota.

Maybe the theme of the 2022 playoffs will be about experience vs. inexperience.