b log

Apr 18 2023

NHL 2023 playoffs odds and predictions - 1st Round

Predicting first round series winners

Two conferences, four divisions, and eight pairs of teams equal lots of opening-round playoff hockey. Without further ado, let's look at the numbers already!

Probability to win the 1st round series
Colorado Avalanche52.15 %1.92
Seattle Kraken47.85 %2.09
Dallas Stars50.28 %1.99
Minnesota Wild49.72 %2.01
Boston Bruins55.17 %1.81
Florida Panthers44.83 %2.23
Toronto Maple Leafs51.1 %1.96
Tampa Bay Lightning48.9 %2.04
Carolina Hurricanes52.1 %1.92
New York Islanders47.9 %2.09
New Jersey Devils50.33 %1.99
New York Rangers49.67 %2.01
Vegas Golden Knights51.7 %1.93
Winnipeg Jets48.3 %2.07
Edmonton Oilers53.11 %1.88
Los Angeles Kings46.89 %2.13

If you're interested in how we derive our playoff series predictions, check out our post from a couple seasons ago.

Based on our predictions, Boston, Edmonton, Colorado, and Carolina are the most likely favorites to advance to the second round. However, the margins are small. Also, keep an eye on especially on Seattle Kraken; based on our data they are the underdog that might surprise the reigning champion, and go further than expected on average this postseason.