b log

May 2 2023

NHL 2023 playoffs odds and predictions - 2nd Round

The second round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs starts tonight!

Opening round recap

In the first round, home teams had more distractions than ever before: away teams recorded 31 wins (62% win rate), summing up for most road wins ever in round 1. Six out of the eight first-round match-ups were clinched on the road, which just demonstrates the amount of parity there is in the NHL.

The Cup favorites from the two Conferences, Boston and Colorado, both got eliminated. Other than that, the favorite teams in the other series all prevailed.

And yay, finally Toronto made it to the 2nd round!

Predicting second-round series winners

The Maple Leafs get to face Florida Panthers who were able to eliminate Boston Bruins, the record-breaking President Trophy winners. Now that Toronto got over the hump, they may very well be unstoppable.

In our predictions, Edmonton has the edge over Golden Knights, the only series where the team with the home-ice advantage isn't the favorite to advance to the Conference finals. Let's see if Vegas can shut down the Oilers that operate on a 56.2% Power Play success rate and 4.17 GF/GP.

Seattle could be another underdog that'd prevail: they already knocked out Colorado as I anticipated in the predictions for the previous round. This round they face the Dallas Stars and the red-hot Roope Hintz (5+7 in 6 playoff games this season), and according to our predictions, the series is a coin-flip. Also, anything can happen in the series between the Hurricanes and the Devils again, a good example of parity in the league.

Probability to win the 2nd round series
Toronto Maple Leafs51.44 %1.94
Florida Panthers48.56 %2.06
Carolina Hurricanes50.31 %1.99
New Jersey Devils49.69 %2.01
Dallas Stars50.42 %1.98
Seattle Kraken49.58 %2.02
Vegas Golden Knights48.99 %2.04
Edmonton Oilers51.01 %1.96